This article examines 14‐year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time‐1 data to “predict” the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14‐year period. A two‐factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called “neutral affective style,” and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time‐1 model of ailing marriage in which Time‐1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.
Gottman, J. M., & Levenson, R. W. (2002). A two‐factor model for predicting when a couple will divorce: Exploratory analyses using 14‐year longitudinal data. Family process, 41(1), 83-96.