The authors assess the political economy determinants of budget deficit forecast errors. Their econometric analysis indicates that Eurozone governments have manipulated deficit forecasts before elections since the introduction of the Stability and Growth Pact. The left‐right position and the institutional design of governments also affect the quality of deficit forecasts.
Brück, T., &Stephan, A. (2006). Do Eurozone countries cheat with their budget deficit forecasts?. Kyklos, 59(1), 3-15.